Signal file: This week spotlights early fault lines shaping work in 2026

In our first Signal File roundup of the new year, we track the signals shaping a workforce entering 2026 under mixed conditions. Labour market data points to stabilisation, yet pressures are surfacing across the employee journey, from opaque hiring processes and uneven leadership capability to long-term financial uncertainty among younger workers. Together, these signals highlight a widening gap between economic reassurance and lived experience, and the organisational choices that will define trust, capability and resilience in the year ahead.

Candidates face a ‘black hole’ hiring process

New survey shows that over half of job applicants receive no response after applying, with up to 64% saying they’ve been ghosted at some point in the hiring process. As application volumes rise and recruitment becomes more automated, candidates increasingly experience hiring as a ‘black hole,’ eroding trust in employers before a relationship even begins.

In action: Treat candidate communication as part of employer reputation, set clear response expectations and close the loop, even when automation is involved.

The labour market steadies beneath the headlines

Despite late-2025 fears of a sharp downturn, new private-sector data suggests the labour market may be stabilising. ADP reports 41,000 jobs added in December, reversing losses from November, while service-sector employment returned to growth and small-business hiring rebounded. Layoff rates remain contained, pointing to a market that slowed through autumn before finding firmer footing.

In action: Plan for a cooling but resilient labour market, balancing caution with targeted hiring and retention.

Gen Z’s retirement optimism outpaces planning

New survey finds that while many Gen Z workers imagine experience-led retirements, a third don’t know how much they currently contribute to their pension. Despite expecting to retire earlier than other generations, 61% say they’d be devastated if they couldn’t achieve their ideal retirement. The gap highlights a generation that is optimistic about the future but unclear on the financial path to reach it.

In action: Pair retirement benefits with clearer guidance and education, helping younger workers translate long-term aspirations into practical planning.

Frontline promotions create a leadership gap

New Gallup research shows most frontline supervisors are promoted based on individual performance rather than people-management skills. As a result, these supervisors are significantly less engaged than peers selected for supervisory capability, with knock-on effects for team engagement and performance. The findings suggest the Peter Principle remains embedded in frontline management pipelines.

In action: Shift promotion criteria from top performer to people leader and invest early in targeted supervisory training to support first-time managers.