Signal File: what’s the cost of future employment?

This week’s signals point to a labour market that has stopped moving, a generation of older workers falling out of view, and employees absorbing costs and risks their employers have not yet claimed. The picture suggests the gap between what organisations provide and what workers are left to arrange for themselves is widening.

The hiring market goes quiet

New figures from the Office for National Statistics show UK vacancies have fallen to 702,000, the lowest level since 2014 outside the pandemic period. Payrolled employment continues to slide, unemployment has edged up over the year and real pay growth has thinned to almost nothing. The ONS suggests that smaller firms in particular are holding back on recruitment because of rising labour costs, suggesting a market where employers are neither hiring nor shedding staff.

In action: When movement in employment stalls, internal progression and redeployment matter more than external recruitment.

Out of work, out of sight

New research from the Centre for Ageing Better finds that one in five people aged 50 to state pension age are out of work, education, training or retirement. The charity has introduced a new measure to make the group visible in labour market statistics, arguing that policy attention and support programmes have concentrated almost entirely on younger jobseekers. The number of older people actively seeking or open to work is now at its highest level since 2020, a pool of experience sitting outside the workforce while employers report skills shortages.

In action: Processes built around conventional career trajectories can filter out experienced candidates before anyone reads the application.

Pay without the performance review

Amazon has committed more than $230 million to pay and benefits for Whole Foods store workers in the US, replacing performance review based progression with predictable annual increases. The package extends health, dental and vision cover further into part-time roles and opens the company’s education and family benefits to grocery staff. The move reads as a bet that certainty and inclusion retain frontline workers more effectively than reward cycles.

In action: Reconsider what progression signals. Predictable, transparent pay routes may hold frontline staff better than performance-linked increases.

Workers are paying for their own AI

New research from Deloitte UK estimates British workers are spending £958 million a year of their own money on generative AI tools they use for work. Nearly two thirds now use the technology at work, a substantial share do so without telling their employer, and around half have received no formal training. Most users say their organisation offers no clear direction on how AI should be used, and many weekly users worry that visible adoption will make managers question whether their role is needed at all.

In action: Where employers don’t have clear policies, employees are already buying, hiding and improvising with AI tools, which carries real security and quality risk.

Working class becomes the default

New polling from Pew Research Center finds 60% of US adults now describe themselves as working class, up from 54% two years ago. The identity has spread well beyond its traditional boundaries, adopted by around half of graduates and half of those in the highest income households. The shift suggests economic insecurity is no longer read as a function of income or education, but as a shared condition.

In action: Financial anxiety now cuts across seniority, and reward and wellbeing strategies built around income bands may miss it entirely.